Predictive Transaction Decision Engine

Predictive decisioning for every transaction.

An ML-based decision layer that evaluates transaction quality before action is taken — scoring authorization success, fraud and chargeback risk, and retry outcome probability.

Retry decisioning
Fraud scoring
Repeat optimization
Transaction eventDecision engine
Card eventMerchant configurationHistorical outcomesRoute contextRetry context

Authorization success probability

Fraud / chargeback probability

Retry outcome prediction

Decision layer · deterministic ML

AssessmentPolicyDecisionMonitoring
AllowStep-up · ReviewRetryBlock · filterOptimize repeat
Unified Decision Engine

Assessed, decided, measured.

For each transaction the engine evaluates probability of successful authorization, probability of fraud or chargeback, and the expected retry outcome — then acts accordingly.

01

Assessment

Authorization successFraud / chargebackRetry outcome
02

Decision core

Policy appliedPer transactionDeterministic ML
03

Controlled actions

Allow or block retryFlag or filter high-riskRoute · retry · optimize
04

Measured outcomes

Less unnecessary volumeBetter traffic qualityLower operational risk
Model modules

Three models. One decision layer.

Each module is built, validated and calibrated for its own slice of the payment lifecycle.

Retry Prediction Service

200+ parametersDry mode

Predictive scoring of scheduled repeat transactions across transaction and behavioral parameters, with configurable execution thresholds — fewer low-probability retries, lower issuer load.

Execution threshold
Prediction vs actual

Fraud Prediction Service

100+ parameters

Transaction-level scoring of chargeback and fraud-alert likelihood, trained on client-specific historical data — a configurable threshold cuts only the highest-risk tail, optionally under a blocking budget.

RDREthoca
Threshold · budget

Repeat Payment Optimization

Precision vs coverageFalse-positive sensitive

One-click and tokenized repeat payments are scored for decline probability — calibrated with higher sensitivity to false positives, with thresholds tuned to balance precision and coverage.

Token
Attempt
Outcome
Decline probabilitySensitivity
Validation-first deployment

Validated before it acts.

Every model runs in dry mode alongside production, is validated against control groups with prediction-vs-actual tracking, and only then influences live decisions — under a controlled rollout, monitored over time.

Dry modeControl groupPrediction vs actualContinuous monitoring
Validation lifecycle
TestDry mode gate
Validate
Activate
Monitor
Monitoring loops back into validation
Prediction vs actual
PredictedActualConvergence
Control groupDecisioned
Accuracy monitoredDrift watched
Controlled rollout
Measured decisioning impact

Measured on validated production traffic.

These figures describe measured outcomes on validated traffic — not a promise for every integration.

38%

Fewer unnecessary retries

0.4% false-positive rate, scheduled transactions

10%

Reduction in failed one-click payments

0.09% false-positive rate

44%

Authorization approval-rate improvement

Across validated production traffic

17.5%

Of fraudulent transactions blocked

Via the fraud prediction service

Based on validated production data. Results depend on traffic profile, integration scope and decisioning configuration.

ML, not generic AI

Built for payments, not for prose.

Transaction processing involves high-frequency events and structured, multi-parameter data — a domain where classical and advanced ML outperforms general-purpose AI.

Why deterministic ML

Deterministic and explainable outputs
Stable behaviour at high transaction volume
The predictability financial systems require
Generative models are not suited to this job

The approach

Classical and advanced ML models
Structured, multi-parameter inputs
Predictable, auditable decisions
Optimized for high-frequency events
Operations & architecture

From event to monitored decision.

Models are calibrated per client — adapted to traffic, GEO and BIN behaviour — and run at operational scale with monitoring and alerting on prediction accuracy.

Client calibration
TrafficGEOBIN behaviour
01

Transaction events

Card payment events stream into the decision layer.

02

Historical outcomes

Authorizations, declines, disputes and retries feed the data foundation.

03

Training & validation

Models are trained and validated against real outcomes.

04

Decision layer

Per-transaction scoring supports allow, block, route and retry decisions.

05

Operations monitoring

Prediction accuracy is monitored continuously over time.

The loop closes. Monitoring feeds outcomes back into training and validation — decisioning is configured per integration and tuned over time.

Prediction accuracyOutcomesModel calibration
Predictive decisioning

Deploy predictive decisioning with controlled validation.

Talk to our team about retry decisioning, fraud scoring, repeat-payment optimization and the validation lifecycle behind them.

Three predictions

Authorization success, fraud / chargeback and retry outcome.

Controlled actions

Allow, block, route, retry and repeat-payment optimization.

Validation-first

Dry mode, control groups and prediction-vs-actual tracking.

Client-calibrated

Models adapted to your traffic, GEO and BIN behaviour.